Class society DNV GL has released fourth edition of its Maritime Forecast to 2050, now anticipating hydrogen will not be among the leading fuels of the future for shipping.
Looking at 16 different fuel types, the DNV GL investment position in LNG was reflected, with fossil fuel-based LNG expected to gain a significant share until regulations tighten in 2030 or 2040. By 2050, e-ammonia, blue ammonia and bio-methanol were deemed most promising carbon-neutral fuels. Limited uptake of hydrogen as a ship fuel was predicted (as a result of both the estimated price of the fuel and the investment costs for the engine and fuel systems), but may serve in the production of several carbon-neutral fuels such as e-ammonia, blue ammonia, and e-methanol.
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Despite some promising R&D efforts by Japanese shipping interests, at a national level, Japan's disproportionately influential role as chair of the MEPC (Marine Environment Protection Committee) is now sitting in the shadow of the disastrous oil spill in the Indian Ocean jurisdiction of Mauritius, with several Japanese Government agencies and companies, as well as the IMO and other oil industry bodies, meant to oversee the clean-up effort.
Global shipping subsidizes the entire oil industry through operating on heavy fuel oil, and what isn't burned off, emitting immense amounts of carbon dioxide and other pollutants, is leaked into the ocean with regularity across the international fleet. If shipping did not take this heavy fuel oil at a value of ~US$150b/year, the oil industry would have to pay to dispose of it safely. As a subsidy for the entire oil industry, it provides refineries with a revenue stream in a market with lax environmental controls
Madeline Rose, Climate Campaign Director, Pacific Environment highlights the irony of voluntary self-regulation. “The shipping industry is living on a different planet. They continue to oppose 100% decarbonization by 2050, when the health of our planet requires that they fully decarbonize by 2035.”
Japan's stance at the IMO involves lobbying for the shipping sector's giant 1 billion tonnes of annual greenhouse gas emissions (which would place it as 6th in the country rankings), to be allowed to keep rising in absolute terms for at least another decade, in violation of Japan's own signing of the Paris Agreement.
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Efforts under the partnership between MCST and Swire Shipping have been highlighted in an article published today by the Global Maritime Forum.
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What does a sustainable ocean economy look like by 2030? The World Ocean Initiative assesses industries including seafood, shipping, tourism and renewable energy in its latest report. It also claims:
Explore the other aspects of the ocean economy which must be addressed and safeguarded over the coming decade and read the full report here: